2012 OSU Season Breakdown

OSU fans feel a sense or urgency about the coming football season. Most will be extremely disappointed should we have a 3rd losing season in a row. There is a small rumor that BDC is holding back some Pac-12 TV money in the event we do have another losing season. The pressure is therefore high for Riley to get atleast 6 wins this season which would likely send us to the New Mexico Bowl. Personally, I may be ready for new leadership short of 7 wins but 6 gets the Riley extension unless Larry Scott makes 7 wins mandatory for bowls sometime this summer. Hence, it would likely be enough to preserve the Riley II era atleast one more year.

So if 6 wins is perhaps the magic number where will they come from? I think OSU will beat the Nicholls State Colonels. I see no other guaranteed wins. The next in line that I like them to have good chances to win are likely at UCLA Bruins in our 3rd game, maybe Washington St at home in a hard fought contest, Cal at home towards the end, and hopefully Arizona St. at home about 2/3 through the season. Those are the four Pac-12 games I give OSU a small edge in. However, I don’t expect them to win all four of those. I would say three of them is likely. So that would be just 4 wins and then we need to try adding 2 more from the games I see us as slight underdogs or worse.

Those games include Wisconsin at home in game 2, at Arizona Wildcats in game 4 because Rodriguez will be expected to beat OSU, at BYU Cougars, Utah at home in a tight one because Whittingham should be ready, at Washington, at Stanford and finally Oregon at home in the Civil War. I believe we will need 2 of these games to get to 6 wins and for Riley to be safe for another year. Utah at home is our best chance of this group I think. After that probably at Arizona or at Washington. Neither will be easy wins. I think we can hang fairly close to Wisconsin at home but after last year’s shellacking I in no way am prepared to predict a victory against the Badgers. I think Riley may just win 1 game out of this second group of contests. Perhaps Utah. That would mean his total victories would be 5 and it would be a 3rd losing season if that is how it plays out. That currently is where I stand. I put the over/under maybe around 5.30 wins but 5 is my most likely foreseen outcome.

How many games will OSU win this Fall?

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Which specific games will OSU win?

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Topics: Beavers, Oregon State, Riley

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  • thembeavers

    i think Oregon state is going to have a hard time this year; I think they will do there normal beat a team they should not ie like an ASU or UW but they’ll lose to a team they should not WSU. In the end I don’t see to many wins. But hey we all could be wrong here is to hope there is always hope.

  • pddrad

    it sounds like most of us are already comparing  this year to last year. if we were to do that to are own lives what a mess some of u.s will and do end up in life. you one’s that are so sure we can’t compete for the PAC – 12  must be doing alright with what you can get out of your life. so that being said i hope we all can lat this season be the best one in a long time. sure it will be hard but life is hard if you want to get the best out of your life. lets hope are player’s this year are ready to get the best out of their lives on the field o.k

    • OS_Beaver

       @pddrad
      I don’t think we have enough pure leaders on the team to go much higher than 7 wins.  I would be pretty happy to get to 7 wins but I agree with ‘thembeavers’ below that we will lose some game we shouldn’t but also beat a team we are an underdog against.  Riley really does need to reach 6 wins though because hardly any FBS program is okay with 3 consecutive losing seasons, let alone from a power conference.  The Pac-12 is becoming a premier conference in every way and the expectations are raising everywhere in conference.  Hence, why so many schools have been bringing in new coaches including some big names in Rodriguez and Leach.

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