2012 OSU Season Breakdown

OSU fans feel a sense or urgency about the coming football season. Most will be extremely disappointed should we have a 3rd losing season in a row. There is a small rumor that BDC is holding back some Pac-12 TV money in the event we do have another losing season. The pressure is therefore high for Riley to get atleast 6 wins this season which would likely send us to the New Mexico Bowl. Personally, I may be ready for new leadership short of 7 wins but 6 gets the Riley extension unless Larry Scott makes 7 wins mandatory for bowls sometime this summer. Hence, it would likely be enough to preserve the Riley II era atleast one more year.

So if 6 wins is perhaps the magic number where will they come from? I think OSU will beat the Nicholls State Colonels. I see no other guaranteed wins. The next in line that I like them to have good chances to win are likely at UCLA Bruins in our 3rd game, maybe Washington St at home in a hard fought contest, Cal at home towards the end, and hopefully Arizona St. at home about 2/3 through the season. Those are the four Pac-12 games I give OSU a small edge in. However, I don’t expect them to win all four of those. I would say three of them is likely. So that would be just 4 wins and then we need to try adding 2 more from the games I see us as slight underdogs or worse.

Those games include Wisconsin at home in game 2, at Arizona Wildcats in game 4 because Rodriguez will be expected to beat OSU, at BYU Cougars, Utah at home in a tight one because Whittingham should be ready, at Washington, at Stanford and finally Oregon at home in the Civil War. I believe we will need 2 of these games to get to 6 wins and for Riley to be safe for another year. Utah at home is our best chance of this group I think. After that probably at Arizona or at Washington. Neither will be easy wins. I think we can hang fairly close to Wisconsin at home but after last year’s shellacking I in no way am prepared to predict a victory against the Badgers. I think Riley may just win 1 game out of this second group of contests. Perhaps Utah. That would mean his total victories would be 5 and it would be a 3rd losing season if that is how it plays out. That currently is where I stand. I put the over/under maybe around 5.30 wins but 5 is my most likely foreseen outcome.

How many games will OSU win this Fall?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Which specific games will OSU win?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Next Beavers Game Full schedule »
Saturday, Nov 11 Nov7:30California Golden BearsBuy Tickets

Tags: Beavers Oregon State Riley

comments powered by Disqus